Guns, germs, and steel are the ultimate deciding factors of human history. Beyond that, it depends on humam energy. A civilization cannot be exterminated if it has mildy adequate weapons, immune to major diseases, and has decent infrastructure. Once that is fulfilled a war can be won off of human factors, such as the training or quantity of the soldiers or the intelligence of the higher ranks.
Literacy and education can help stop a war. Pacificsts need to read. Things like the Dominion, where they are looking to just conquer, no questions ask, happen very little in history. That is things like the conquistadors, Nazis, and the Mongol horde. Empires bent on conquest like the Incas, British empire, Rome, America usually work off of dehumanizing and outsmarting illiterate peoples. Most conflicts are made possible by not understanding another culture which can be bypassed by reading.
In a Star Trek context, if the Federation wants to remain peaceful they should read as much as possible.