CIR - Term 1

[Crimson-Artist]

lovely! Congratulations to all the winners. Time to get this party started!

 

[Saxopi]

gib stats pl0x

 

[Megacrafter127]

gib stats pl0x

That is being worked on.

 

[CyberTao]

I have a question about the results versus the stats;

Spoiler: Question

keptick received:
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
4.64% 4.7% 4.95% 5.42% 5.58%

Tomino_sama received:
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
3.53% 3.58% 4.5% 3.16% 4.91%

Explain the blue moon that must have taken place?

 

[DukeofRealms]

Explain the blue moon that must have taken place?

I suggest you look at how STV works. In short, someone who is now in the council, was competing for the same votes as keptick's. Tomino_sama is the victor of his group of voters, whereas keptick was not the winner of his voter group (sort of). We'd have to take a look at exactly what happened with the votes to tell.

Here is an extras video:

Original video (If you didn't watch it)

 

[CyberTao]

I suggest you look at how STV works. In short, someone who is now in the council, was competing for the same votes as keptick's. Tomino_sama is the victor of his group of voters, whereas keptick was not the winner of his voter group (sort of). We'd have to take a look at exactly what happened with the votes to tell.

Here is an extras video:

Original video (If you didn't watch it)

I have looked at those videos, and understand how it works. The best I can come up with is that everyone who voted 2nd or 3rd (etc) preference for kep had their earlier preference selected as a council member already, or Tomato voters had their other voters knocked out quickly.

Any way you look at it though, a larger amount of people overall wanted kep on the council, which is why it is strange that he did not get on. I'm sure there is a fancy math machine that could calculate the chances, but it really feels like a blue moon kind of outcome, and could be considered more next time? I mean overall, it came down to a person who 19.68% of people considered to be a good candidate for the council beating someone who 25.29% thought would be a good councilor.

I get that the system chosen was meant to allow people to vote without worry of what other people vote, but how come the person who had more overall approval lost? I'm not trying to discredit this election, I'm alright with things as they are, it's just something I'd like to see thought about more before the next one.

 

[DraconisDomini]

The best I can come up with is that everyone who voted 2nd or 3rd (etc) preference for kep had their earlier preference selected as a council member already, or Tomato voters had their other voters knocked out quickly.

This is presumably what happened. You can't really add the percentages of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc votes together for exactly this reason. For the sake of constructing an example, lets say that Megacrafter, Sven and Keptick were all appealing to the same rather tight voter base, but more of those people put Megacrafter or Sven first. That voter block has already got their first two choices selected, so if that voter block constituted less than 29% of the total electorate (and no one else voted for Keptick) then Keptick being elected would result in over-representation of that group. On the other hand if Tomino_Sama was the 'least-worst' choice of a lot of very disparate voters (which seems plausible given that he is fairly well known), then if a lot of other voters had their higher choices knocked out (again likely, given the size of the field) that disparate group is best represented by Tomino_Sama.

Without knowing who the first/higher choices of those who voted Keptick for second/later choices were you can't really make a good judgement.

 

[CyberTao]

This is presumably what happened. You can't really add the percentages of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc votes together for exactly this reason. For the sake of constructing an example, lets say that Megacrafter, Sven and Keptick were all appealing to the same rather tight voter base, but more of those people put Megacrafter or Sven first. That voter block has already got their first two choices selected, so if that voter block constituted less than 29% of the total electorate (and no one else voted for Keptick) then Keptick being elected would result in over-representation of that group. On the other hand if Tomino_Sama was the 'least-worst' choice of a lot of very disparate voters (which seems plausible given that he is fairly well known), then if a lot of other voters had their higher choices knocked out (again likely, given the size of the field) that disparate group is best represented by Tomino_Sama.

Without knowing who the first/higher choices of those who voted Keptick for second/later choices were you can't really make a good judgement.

I don't pretend to know people, so all I can do is look at odds of probability, something just doesn't look right about it. It looks more like people who backed Tom 2nd+ had their earlier candidates knocked out first, meaning that a person gathered their 2nd and later votes faster than someone else. For all I know, people who voted Kep later may have voted for people who got kicked later. It is entirely possible that he only lost because the first candidates eliminated benefited someone else more. One persongot kicked out, then the next person to get kicked would have gave enough votes to him to have not gotten kicked.

Maybe the order of elimination caused some margin of error? Strange to find myself wondering how much luck was involved in this. Wondering how many votes, all in all, were discarded at the end of it. Would be an interesting statistic to see in my honest opinion.

 

[Gamel]

Congratulations to all the winners

 

[jath]

I kinda just wish you'd have gone with 12, like the Jedi council, or the quorum of the 12 in Battle Star Galactica.

 

[Comr4de]

I suggest you look at how STV works. In short, someone who is now in the council, was competing for the same votes as keptick's. Tomino_sama is the victor of his group of voters, whereas keptick was not the winner of his voter group (sort of). We'd have to take a look at exactly what happened with the votes to tell.

I would believe this EXCEPT; tomino lost in every category compared to keptick. Something doesn't make sense here.

It has been explained via skype that it is indeed an unfortunate quirk in the voting system and the way the math turns out

 

[CyberTao]

I would believe this EXCEPT; tomino lost in every category compared to keptick. Something doesn't make sense here.

It probably has to do with who got knocked out when. It's possible most of the people who voted for Kep 2nd or later were those who voted for the current winners earlier. It's also possible that all the people who got eliminated first had a fair amount of their votes transferred to Tomato.

I don't know if it's just luck or if people really did just vote for Com or Mega before Kep (Doesn't seem like much of a stretch to me), but it definitely doesn't seem quite right just looking at the numbers, but when you consider that the total votes are something like 1/5th of all that, and that 1 person gets only 1 vote, it's hard to really wrap your head around where all the votes went in the end.

 

[BinHawkins2013]

I kinda just wish you'd have gone with 12, like the Jedi council, or the quorum of the 12 in Battle Star Galactica.

that would have been funny and cool at the same time. 12 always was a good number. but anyway congrats to all the winners.

 

[generalBLT13]

Coolest part about the council is your name gets to be yellow xD

 

[Captain_Boroski]

it's hard to really wrap your head around where all the votes went in the end.

lots of room in forest for unmarked graves товарищ)))) some go in gulag to prove their loyalty))))

 

[mbo022]

Im impressed and also kind of disapointed by the choice of the council, i like to see members i never even heard of being in council but some others i dont, dont get me wrong im not here to argue. I will not counter your choices

 

[Ithirahad]

INB4 rage because of several Mushroom Fleet members making it in. Regardless, though, congrats everyone.

 

[Criss]

INB4 rage because of several Mushroom Fleet members making it in. Regardless, though, congrats everyone.

There is only one MF member on that list.

 

[Ithirahad]

There is only one MF member on that list.

Tom, Dalmont, and you... right?

 

[Criss]

Tom, Dalmont, and you... right?

What? I'm not even on the ballot. Dalmont and skylord are no longer playing on MF. They haven't been for a while. Tomino is the only MF player here.