CIR - Term 1

    Discussion in 'Council News' started by DukeofRealms, Apr 26, 2015.

    1. DraconisDomini

      Joined:
      Jan 25, 2015
      Messages:
      65
      Hmm, it would seem the sceptics were right.

      If anyone wants to see what the revised stats look like in graphical form, see below. I've converted percentages into votes by multiplying by 453 (the number of voters) and ordered by the number of first choice votes.

      Starmaderevisedvotes.png
       
    2. DukeofRealms

      DukeofRealms Count Duku

      Joined:
      Sep 4, 2013
      Messages:
      1,397
      Ok, so kramerc has gone through the statistics for the rounds stats and preference percentages, he's found a few errors with the calculations, which should now be fixed in the latest statistics.

      The quota is actually 56, not 57 and the number of valid votes was 443. The 453 figure was how many people actually voted, but 10 of those had invalid votes. None of this has affected the results of the winners, just the statistics showing how they won.

      Here is the latest Round Statistics: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/128LNZRICS5hONb0C1PjyFCSfhtQk-HnclCiaNtHdcNU/edit?usp=sharing

      Total of who voted: 443

      aalexandrostgreat received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 1.58% 1.13% 1.58% 2.03%

      Admiralkio received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.23% 0.45% 1.13% 0.68%

      Arkudo received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.9% 0.23% 0.23% 0.45% 0.9%

      AtraUnam received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.13% 1.81% 0.9% 1.13% 1.58%

      Azurite received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      2.26% 3.16% 2.71% 2.93% 2.93%

      Biostrakk110 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.23% 0.9% 0.23% 1.13%

      Comr4de received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      6.77% 4.06% 4.29% 2.93% 2.03%

      Creeper__God received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.68% 1.13% 1.35% 1.13% 2.48%

      Crimson-Artist received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.58% 3.61% 4.29% 6.55% 4.74%

      Crusade received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      4.97% 4.97% 5.64% 7.45% 6.32%

      CyberTao received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.13% 1.81% 1.35% 3.84% 3.16%

      Dalmont received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      7.67% 8.8% 8.8% 5.64% 4.29%

      FlyingDebris received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.68% 1.35% 1.81% 4.06% 2.03%

      Gamel received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.9% 0.45% 0.23% 0.68% 1.13%

      gravypod received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.81% 2.03% 2.03% 2.26% 2.48%

      HolyCookie received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.45% 0.23% 1.35% 0.9%

      idiotplaysgames received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.23% 1.81% 1.35% 0.23% 2.26%

      Ithirahad received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.81% 1.35% 3.39% 2.71% 1.58%

      jath received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.13% 2.48% 1.81% 1.58% 1.35%

      jayman38 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.23% 0.9% 0.23% 0.68%

      jorgekorke received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.13% 0.9% 0.68% 0.68% 1.13%

      jstenholt received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.23% 0.23% 0.45% 0.68% 0.45%

      jzimmerman4 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.23% 1.13% 0.45% 1.35% 1.13%

      keptick received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      4.06% 4.74% 4.97% 5.42% 5.64%

      kikaha received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.13% 4.51% 0.68% 0.23% 1.35%

      kiwionthemoon received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 1.13%

      Lecic received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      2.71% 2.48% 2.26% 2.03% 1.58%

      Lidren received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      4.29% 1.58% 1.35% 1.13% 2.48%

      linwe talion received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.35% 1.81% 1.13% 0.68% 0.23%

      LordXaosa received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      3.84% 0.45% 0.68% 0.23% 0.68%

      Mariux received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.68% 0.68% 1.81% 1.35% 2.26%

      Markon received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.58% 0.0% 1.13% 1.13% 0.68%

      Megacrafter127 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      4.97% 4.06% 6.55% 5.64% 5.64%

      Mered4 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.0% 0.68% 0.45% 0.23% 0.68%

      mindlord0013 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.0% 1.58% 0.45% 1.35%

      Moultonlava5 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.23% 0.45% 0.45% 0.23% 0.23%

      MrFURB received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.58% 2.48% 3.61% 2.26% 2.93%

      Nauvran received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 2.48% 1.13% 0.68% 1.81%

      Pi-Rex received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.45% 0.68% 0.9% 2.26% 1.35%

      Runeseer received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.68% 0.68% 0.45% 0.9% 0.45%

      SkylordLuke received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      8.35% 12.19% 8.8% 8.35% 6.55%

      Sven_The_Slayer received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      4.97% 6.09% 5.87% 7.67% 4.51%

      takethispie received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      4.51% 0.68% 0.45% 0.0% 1.13%

      therimmer96 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      1.13% 2.71% 2.26% 2.26% 2.03%

      Tomino_sama received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      14.67% 3.61% 4.51% 3.16% 4.97%

      Valiant70 received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.68% 2.48% 2.03% 1.81% 3.16%

      whooplaah received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.68% 0.0% 0.23% 0.0% 0.23%

      Will2brown received:
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
      0.9% 0.68% 0.9% 0.45% 0.68%

      If you spot anything you think might be wrong, or have any questions about the statistics/voting , feel free to post/reply.
       
    3. Leanson

      Joined:
      Nov 16, 2013
      Messages:
      1,174
      Wait.. how cam tom numbers be this off compared to last time.. what happen to SkylordLuke's votes? Kepticks votes changed little? How can their be this large of differences with these two stats. Seriously look fishy. I don't understand how it could be messed up. It should be simple, I don't know how you go from 3.53 to 14.67.....in first votes. And when this first results came out, they were justified as he won with the second, third and etc. Wtf
      --- Updated post (merge), Apr 29, 2015, Original Post Date: Apr 29, 2015 ---
      It's more than a few mistakes....smells of fishy.
       
    4. RejectOmen

      Joined:
      Oct 15, 2014
      Messages:
      17
      well i suppose since tom had enough to get in in just the first votes alone, as well as skylord, and nearly dalmont and comrade as well, you had his votes roll down the hill and finally go out the window entirely because everyone who voted for him also voted for another winner. 4 of the seats were taken up in the first round of voting alone lol
       
      #104 RejectOmen, Apr 29, 2015
      Last edited: Apr 29, 2015
    5. EmperorVonDoom

      Joined:
      Feb 5, 2014
      Messages:
      24
      Looks like Tom got everyone else elected.
      And if this was the American voting system Tom would be El-Presidente.

      So all in all congratz to everyone who got in again.
       
    6. Man_Pidgeon

      Joined:
      Jun 28, 2013
      Messages:
      17
      All Hail the council.
       
    7. DraconisDomini

      Joined:
      Jan 25, 2015
      Messages:
      65
      I think there may still be a bug in the round-by-round stats. The total in each row should only ever decrease from 443 as some people lose their 5th choice and their vote gets discounted entirely, but the totals are increasing sometimes as well.
       
    8. CyberTao

      CyberTao 鬼佬

      Joined:
      Nov 10, 2013
      Messages:
      2,566
      Would have to agree with Draconis, something is still off with the round-by-round. The obvious way of seeing the error would be in the final round, in which 6 people have 56 votes and 1 has 63. Under normal STV no one should be over the set requirement to get elected (56, which is ~1/7th of all people voting), and because some votes end up being discounted, there should be at least 1 or more persons who isn't quite at the required 56.

      Mayhaps it was a rounding error? When votes get transferred, I recall hearing they were distributed as %s, and with 44 rounds you can amass quite an inaccuracy.
       
    9. Lancake

      Lancake Head of Testing

      Joined:
      Aug 20, 2013
      Messages:
      794
      There's 1 person with 63 because he was the last guy that got selected, there is no need to continue the rounds for those excess votes since all 7 council members are selected.
       
    10. CyberTao

      CyberTao 鬼佬

      Joined:
      Nov 10, 2013
      Messages:
      2,566
      I went back over it, apparently I missed the part were the votes were reduced before being divided by 7. When I was reading about STV, it said the threshold was 1/7 of all votes (so 56*7= ~ total #votes), so I never noticed that adjustment.
       
    11. DukeofRealms

      DukeofRealms Count Duku

      Joined:
      Sep 4, 2013
      Messages:
      1,397
      Looks like there was indeed a bug with the round stats, the increasing in total votes was caused by votes being over-transferred (transferred more than once) to their 4th and 5th preferences in the statistics. This has now been fixed.

      We've also added totals to the latest statistics for each round, so you can see what is happening with elimination. I've also decided to include another statistic that shows dead votes, instead of removing dead votes, they are just listed and go nowhere.

      Here are the latest (and hopefully correct this time) stats:

      Round Stats - With no Dead Votes
      Round Stats - With Dead Votes

      kramerc has checked the algorithm as well, just in case. A few things were improved and some minor bugs fixed. These stats represent the latest recalculation of winners and the latest stats calculation.
       
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    12. Keptick

      Keptick Overkill titan builder

      Joined:
      Sep 26, 2013
      Messages:
      3,988
      Those stats make a fuckton more sense. No wonder everyone was confused with the initial set of stats :P
       
      • Agree Agree x 1
    13. xlBlackhawklx

      Joined:
      Dec 29, 2013
      Messages:
      500
      Yeah, this 6 page discussion on votes could have easily been avoided by popular vote. If someone doesn't get votes then they should campaign better. Popular vote = 1 vote per person. There is no screwing it up with algorithms or fancy stat charts. 450+ votes one with the most wins. Simplest form of voting.
       
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    14. idiotplaysgames

      Joined:
      Jun 20, 2013
      Messages:
      302
      agreed
       
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    15. Criss

      Criss Social Media Director

      Joined:
      Jun 25, 2013
      Messages:
      2,179
      Except campaigning is very unfair when a few people here have youtube channels that can instantly get their message across to their thousands of subscribers. Who cares if 6 pages of this topic have been posted? It's been proven that it works, as was shown in the latest stats. As long as it works we should be satisfied.
       
      • Agree Agree x 5
    16. Sven_The_Slayer

      Joined:
      Aug 14, 2013
      Messages:
      2,806
      Agreed, many people were afraid it would be nothing more than a popularity contest. It may be more complicated but if it does produce a more fair result it should be worth it. Also this is the very first council so we have a bugs and procedure to work out.
       
      • Agree Agree x 2
    17. idiotplaysgames

      Joined:
      Jun 20, 2013
      Messages:
      302
      No kiddin...
       
    18. DraconisDomini

      Joined:
      Jan 25, 2015
      Messages:
      65
      I've made a little gif animation showing the round by round stats and how the votes get redistributed as people are eliminated if anyone is interested.

      [​IMG]

      The automatic election threshold is the dotted black line, and the 'dead votes' bin collects votes that cannot be re-distributed. Click on the thumbnail to enlarge.
       
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    19. Lecic

      Lecic Convicted Lancake Abuser

      Joined:
      Apr 14, 2013
      Messages:
      5,101
      Wow, I made it a lot more rounds than I expected. 37, woot.
       
      • Like Like x 1
    20. Keptick

      Keptick Overkill titan builder

      Joined:
      Sep 26, 2013
      Messages:
      3,988
      Damn, so close XD. Oh well, maybe next time (if I decide to run again).

      Thanks for that gif btw, it's incredibly easier to understand than a messy pile of stats
       
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